The rent vs. buy debate is more complex in Lagos than anywhere. We ran the numbers — here's what they say.

The Framework

We modelled a 10-year scenario for four Lagos neighbourhoods using 2025 Q1 market data, accounting for purchase price, transaction costs (10–15%), current mortgage rates (18–22%), estimated appreciation, rental yield, and maintenance costs.

Surulere: The Middle-Class Test Case

A 3-bedroom in a good Surulere building: ~₦55M purchase, ~₦2.2M annual rent. At 20% mortgage rate, monthly payments come to ~₦810,000 vs ₦183,000/month rent. Break-even at approximately year 12–14.

Verdict: Long-term (15+ years) with below-market financing, buying wins significantly. For ≤10-year horizon, renting preserves flexibility.

Lekki Phase 1: The Premium Dilemma

₦180M purchase, ₦6.5M annual rent. At commercial rates, break-even extends to 18–22 years.

Verdict: Unless paying cash or accessing subsidised financing, renting often makes more financial sense.

Ikeja GRA: The Sweet Spot

The most balanced rent-vs-buy equation in Lagos right now. Rental yields healthy at 5–6%, established social infrastructure.

Verdict: Strong buy case at ₦45M–₦70M.

The Variables Nobody Talks About

Rent Increases Are Brutal

Lagos rents have increased 40–60% in some areas since 2022. When you buy, your mortgage payment is largely fixed.

NHF Loans Change Everything

NHF loans through FMBN offer rates of 6–9% — dramatically different from commercial rates. Check your eligibility before assuming you can only access commercial financing.

Our Bottom Line

If you can afford to buy in Surulere, Ikeja, or mainland corridors without stretching your finances — buy. The long-term case is compelling.